The impact of the global environmental crisis on future generations

前言：筆者在《神國雜誌》40期刊載「普世經濟前景對千禧世代的挑戰」一文中曾提到過去兩世紀的快速經濟發展造成幾種影響全球的環境危機。¹ 該文已經簡述最嚴重的是氣候變遷使地震及自然災害增加，生態面積的估量已經超過地球的負荷能力，人口增長失控、導致饑荒與貧窮惡化以及自然資源的耗竭。這些危機衍生出來許多其他的環境危機，因為篇幅所限，未及討論。本文將上期未克提及的其他環境危機簡述如下，目的在提醒這世代及千禧世代未來的領導人重視這些危機，並設法解決或減緩其危害速度，使下一世代的人在這地球上能安居樂業。

water shortage crisis

The drought in California has lasted for four years. Governor Brown ordered the entire state to save 25% of water for the first time on April 1. Californians can't help but reflect: Do the existing economic development models and water usage habits exceed the limits of nature? "The current way of life cannot continue," said Brown, who studies the environment in Oakland. "There are now 38 million people and 32 million cars in California, and everyone is scrambling to live a comfortable life. This situation has to change." Cooley, director of the Pacific Institute's water resources project, said that Californians originally focused on developing new water sources, but now everyone knows that we have reached the extreme point of increasing revenue, and the focus has become reducing expenditures. ” (Quoted from the United Daily News on April 6, 2015)

二十一世紀水資源缺乏是許多社會及全世界要面對的嚴重問題之一。過去一世紀以來，人類用水量的增長率超過人口增長率的兩倍。水源缺乏是自然及人為的現象。其實地球有足夠的淡水供給七十億人口使用，但由於分配不均、過度浪費、污染及管理不當，造成水源缺乏的問題及危機。² 氣候變遷造成冰山溶解，河水水流量減少，湖泊池塘蓄水量下降，使淡水供給日益減少。

預估未來三十年對水的需求將增加50%，但那時世界許多地區的地下水水位將下降以及大地區將缺水—主要原因是乾旱、大規模灌溉、污染、建立水壩、甚至戰爭。屆時水資源更加供不應求。⁵ 世界每一處的淡水生產率都在減少當中。

根據聯合國全球環境展望報告第四號（2010），「在2025年之前，有18億人口將住在絕對缺水的國家或地區，世界人口的三分之二都有用水困難的情況—也就是無法滿足農業、工業、國內使用、能源及環境的用水需求……」⁶ 而根據一些非政府組織的估計，2015年之前，非洲的二十五個國家將遭受到嚴重的缺水情況。⁷

global drought crisis

Due to the impact of climate change, the earth is imbalanced—some places are plagued by flooding, while other places are short of water due to drought.

聯合國世界氣象組織（WMO）最近報告，因乾旱已經連年在歐洲、印度及巴基斯坦有破紀錄的熱浪來襲，而北美則遭受更多野火焚燒山林之害，初步研判可能與氣候變遷有關。根據聯合國專家及氣象學家的估計，因為地方性農作物的損害及農民生計的困難，中東地區出現好幾十年來最乾旱的冬天，對全球糧食價格可能會帶來威脅。⁸ 

2012年美國農業部即預測國內糧食價格將在次年上升3-4%，而在美國超過上千的郡已經自我定位為受災區。⁹ 最近美國農業部宣稱，因為加州是各種水果、蔬菜、堅果及奶製品的主要的生產地，因此該州的連年乾旱對美國這些產品的供應及價格將在今後帶來負面影響。數據顯示，糧食平均價格從2000年到2015年上漲已經將近一倍。¹⁰ 由於自然氣候的變化，美國已經避免長期的乾旱，但在未來20-50年可能有持續性的乾旱現象出現。¹¹

Land use and deforestation

Deforestation refers to the removal of forests or woods and the conversion of the vacant land into other uses, such as farms, pastures or urban land. A United Nations agency pointed out that the most common use after deforestation is agriculture. Deforestation is one of the causes of global warming and a killer of increasing the greenhouse effect. Deforestation in the tropics accounts for approximately 20% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

▲Deforestation is one of the causes of global warming and a killer of increasing the greenhouse effect. Image source: https://texasstateaquarium.org/tag/deforestation

▲Figure 1: Global drought crisis and average earth temperature 1900-2010. Source: Palmer Global Drought Survey Index – http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/04/14/205781/the-complete-guide-to-modern-day-climate-change/

保護國際協會（Conservation International）在2011年列出十個最頻臨滅絕的森林，包括巴西亞馬遜雨林、剛果雨林、東非肯亞森林、非洲馬達加斯加森林等，都是損失90%或以上的生物棲息地。其中最危險的是印度緬甸一帶的森林及南太平洋的新克里多尼亞島（New Caledonia），只剩下5%的生物棲息地；森德蘭（Sunderland，位於馬來西亞，印尼及新幾內亞一部分的熱帶雨林之總稱）及菲律賓居次（7%）。¹²

Desertification

Desertification refers to land degradation when drier land becomes drier and loses moisture, making it unsuitable for growing plants and wildlife. There are many reasons for this phenomenon, including climate change and human factors.

沙漠化目前是嚴重的生態及環境問題。乾地佔地球土地面積約40%，有二十億人口住在裡面，大多數是窮人。估計乾地的10-20%地區已經劣化成為沙漠，約有600萬到1,200萬平方公里（比較：中國大陸及美國的土地面積都是約960萬平方公里），乾地的居民1-6%住在沙漠化地區，而有十億人口處在進一步沙漠化的危機中。¹³ 

▲Drought in California, USA, lasts for four years. Picture source: http://www.weatherworksinc.com/california-drought

Decrease in arable land area

In addition to desertification, the area of arable land has also been reduced accordingly. Millions of hectares of high-quality agricultural land are lost to urbanization every year. McKinsey & Company estimates that over the next two decades, 300,000 square kilometers of prime land in Italy will be occupied by urban expansion. The United Nations estimates that large areas of virgin forest will be cut down to cultivate food to cope with the increase in population; before 2050, the required food will increase by 70%. At the same time, this is happening around the world, converting large swathes of natural land into different uses, destroying ecosystem services such as flood protection and the manufacture of life-saving drugs. 14

The world's arable land is about 15.8 million square kilometers, accounting for about 11% of the earth's land area. Divided by the current world population of 7.2 billion, we get 490 people per square kilometer. If the population increases to 80-9 billion, the number of people per square kilometer will reach 500-580. 15 The area of arable land and the production of food and cereals per person have shown a downward trend due to increased industrialization (especially in developing countries) and increased demand for food due to population growth. 16 (Figure 2)

▲Figure 2: World population and arable land area 1960-2020 http://apfm.net.au/why_invest_in_australia.html

全球廢棄物危機¹⁷

The World Bank estimates that the world produces about 1.3 billion tons of municipal waste (garbage) every year, and its amount will rise to 2.2 billion tons every year. Solving the waste crisis requires urgent action to stop the damage to the environment and health. In particular, poor waste management in low-income countries increases the risk. The recycled waste is often lower than 50%. Piles of garbage are piled on the river banks. Burning garbage produces thick smoke. Some garbage is toxic and stinky, attracting flies and rats. Running rampant is very harmful to the environment and health.

The reason for the increase in the amount of waste is population growth, urbanization and economic development, especially the industrialization process in developing countries, which makes the existing waste management system unable to handle the rapidly increasing amount of waste. Newly affluent consumers demand more sophisticated and resource-intensive products (especially electronics). Public waste systems in cities cannot keep up with urban expansion and handle hazardous and specific wastes. Coupled with the increase in waste trade, waste management has become one of the most complex and expensive public services.

Improper management of waste threatens public health by jeopardizing basic human needs, including clean water, clean air and safe food. Improper waste collection can also lead to the spread of disease and improper waste disposal. For example, toxic waste mixed with household waste can be extremely dangerous to cleaning workers, nearby neighbors and the entire environment.

生物多樣化的損失與蜜蜂的消失¹⁸

loss of biodiversity

Biological species are facing extinction at a rate that is 1,000 times greater than the natural ecological average. In the past few decades alone, 20% of oceanic coral reefs have been destroyed, others have deteriorated or are on the verge of collapse; tropical rainforests the size of Britain are being cleared every two years. The world is beginning to wake up to the true cost of degradation of the planet's wildlife and resources - the loss of biodiversity - because no one has yet to pay any price. Studies estimate that the economic losses caused by the introduction of non-native agricultural livestock in Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa, the United States and the United Kingdom have reached $100 billion per year. If the issue of biodiversity is not handled carefully, it will pose a great threat to the future survival of mankind itself.

The disappearance of bees

Bee populations have plummeted in recent years, largely due to human measures. The large-scale migration and death of the bee kingdom is a disaster for farmers and human food. Bees, who spread pollen to crops as diverse as apples, blueberries, cucumbers, almonds, walnuts and more, are the basic coagulant that holds agricultural systems together, but this coagulant is unraveling. Bee hives are dying or disappearing in large numbers, possibly due to an unresolved disease called colony collapse disorder (CCD), or due to the heavy use of pesticides, which has forced many bee industries to close. Including new pesticides, neonicotinoids, which may pose a danger to the survival of bees.

When farms become specialized in single crops such as wheat or corn, these crops provide little pollen for foraging bees, causing the bees to starve. If nothing is done to remedy this, the consequence will be that there will not be enough bees to spread pollen for many crops. What is even more worrying is that 100,000 biological species become extinct every year, and bees may disappear with them.

▲Figure 3: Global grain production trends 1971-2015 http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/global-grain-production-1971-2015

Falling cereal production and food crisis

World cereal production per capita peaked at 342 kilograms in 1984. However, over the years, production has been unable to meet demand, and it is necessary to use the stock accumulated in the past to make up for the gap between supply and demand. Currently, this buffer stock is less than two months. Rising temperatures and falling water levels have reduced grain yields everywhere, but the biggest problem comes from the biofuel industry—generally speaking, solids, liquids or gases composed or extracted from biomass and used as fuel. The biofuel industry is growing at a rate of 20% per year; a quarter of the total corn production in the United States is converted into automotive fuel, and biofuels provide 2.7% of the world's road transportation fuels, mainly ethanol and biodiesel.

生產生物燃料的作物被生物質分解或者燒荒種地，導致需要數十年甚至數個世紀的生物燃料才能補償所排放的碳。為了生產生物燃料，許多土地被改為農地，尤其是開發新的農地會破壞生態。生物燃料的大量使用也造成糧食價格上漲，並威脅貧窮人口的生存。²⁰（圖3）

Conclusion: God’s trust and human responsibility

最近才過世的英國著名神學家斯托德（John Stott，1921-2011）在其封筆之作《激進的門徒》（The Radical Disciple，2010）中，呼籲基督徒應該努力維護神為人類所創造的地球。他指出，神的救贖計劃，包括重建祂創世時所立，人與神、人與人、和人與自然的三種和諧關係。因此，基督徒有責任省察人類對地球的態度。人類除了與神和好（藉著耶穌基督）及與人和好（藉著彼此相愛）之外，也要與自然和好（藉著管家治理）。但迄今人類還是沒有達到神創世以來的期望。在與自然和好方面，斯托德提到，人類目前面對四大生態危機：人口迅速倍增、自然資源耗損、垃圾處理問題、及氣候變遷結果。²¹

This article can echo the four major environmental and ecological crises mentioned by Stoddard, as well as the various crises derived from them. In the final analysis, most of these crises are caused by human factors and are the sequelae of modern economic development in the past two centuries.

These include the increasing demand for food due to the increase in population; the large-scale deforestation in pursuit of economic growth, reducing the area of arable land; the large increase in carbon dioxide emissions due to the pursuit of industrialization and the use of fuel, causing serious air pollution, causing the greenhouse effect and climate change Changes; in order to increase food production, excessive use of pesticides affects human health; the comprehensive effect is the rapid disappearance of tropical rainforests and loss of biodiversity, many organisms are on the verge of extinction, bees are reduced, water sources are scarce, drought areas increase, land desertification, and each person Reduced food production and increased waste.

We must always remind ourselves that God is the Lord of all and controls the universe, including the earth (Psalm 24:1; 115:6). The incomparably beautiful earth was created by God and given to human beings to live and enjoy. God wants humans to multiply, fill the earth, subdue the earth, and manage various living creatures in nature and the entire earth (Genesis 1:26-28), Be good stewards of the earth, so do not abuse its resources or ravage or destroy the earth. Let this earth truly become the wonderful place God gave us to live in.Editor's note: Due to limited space, the original text of notes 3, 4 and 19 has been deleted from this article. The entire original text and annotations will be uploaded to the Kingdom of God website.

Author profile

Wen Yingqian, honorary professor of the Department of Economics and Finance of Donghua University in Taiwan, director of the American Chinese Outreach Ministry of Crown Financial Ministries, director of the Christian Association of God Kingdom Resources and director of the Christian Messengers Association, corporate editor of the talent unit of this magazine and editor of the Messenger magazine committee member.