Challenges to Millennials from Universal Economic Outlook

[Economic Trends of Generation M]

This article intends to briefly predict the international economic trends at the end of the 21st century for readers' reference, especially for the millennial generation. Millennials refer to the generation born between 1980 and 1999. There are an estimated 80 million people in the United States, accounting for a quarter of the total U.S. population (approximately 330 million in June 2015). By the 2030s, Millennials were between the ages of thirty and fifty and were backbone leaders around the world. By the 2050s, Millennials had mostly handed over the leadership to the next generation. The two decades from 2030 to 2050 are a critical period for global economic development. It is foreseen that many global economic crises and environmental crises will occur, which require leadership and resolution by the millennial generation. In fact, many younger generations are thinking about solutions, including developing alternative energy sources to replace non-renewable fossil fuels.

We have seen global economic crises in the past, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s, the energy crises of the early 1970s and early 1980s, and the recent financial tsunami of 2008-2009. We have also seen some relatively small-scale regional financial crises. crises, such as the 1976 East Asian crisis. This article will mention that if we continue to follow the same path in the future, do not change the status quo, put aside our respective interests and work together, the world may fall into a deeper crisis. How to find solutions to various crises and "save" humanity from collapse requires Millennials to foresight and come up with solutions, otherwise the world's economic system may collapse overnight. When discussing the economic crisis, we can also focus on the eschatology of the Bible, understand that God is always in control, and believe that Christianity will always bring the greatest hope to the world.

Due to the large amount of relevant literature, various crises cannot be discussed in detail in the limited space. Here are only a few key points:

1. The economic prosperity of the past two centuries will lead to future economic crises.

This is a paradoxical phenomenon - many economic and environmental problems in the future will actually result from the rapid economic development unseen in the past two hundred years, especially after World War II, when the world experienced unprecedented prosperity.

1. The Industrial Revolution and the Rise of Capitalism

The development of modern economy began around the 1760s, at the same time as Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations (1776). It was also synchronized with the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840) that started in Britain and spread to Europe and North America. It was also the beginning of the capitalist era.

工業革命是從紡織業開始，以機器代替手工，然後開始發展新的化學製造業及其他製造業，大量使用煤炭作為能源。這些新興產業不僅創造就業機會，也大量增加生產量。¹（因篇幅所限，所有註釋在此省略，留待網路版刊登）

工業革命是人類歷史的轉捩點，影響人類日常生活的每一層面。平均收入、生活水準及人口開始出現史無前例的增長。在工業革命之下的國家在資本主義早期，人口曾短暫下跌，但從十九世紀末葉到二十世紀，由於生育率增加及死亡率減少，人口呈現大幅增長。 ²

2. Unprecedented growth in living standards

經濟史家麥可斯基（Deirdre McCloskey）稱為十六倍增（factor of 16）─西方社會目前的消費水平是十八世紀初期倫敦住民的十六倍：包括食物、衣服、住房及教育等。學者估計，全世界每人國民所得（以國內生產毛額GDP來衡量）在資本主義興起之前幾乎沒有增加過。經過數千年的停滯，資本主義約在1750年開始增長，首先在北歐及美國，後來分佈到世界各角落。³

根據聯合國研究報告顯示，過去三十年來，發展中國家的生活水平也大幅上升。該則報告主筆馬立克（Khalid Malik）說：「工業革命是攸關一億人口（工業國家）的故事，但這（發展中國家）卻是牽涉數十億人口的故事。」⁴ 這也預表未來國際政治與經濟勢力將從先進國家（北方）逐漸轉移到發展中國家（南方）。

3. Natural resources are depleted due to economic growth

現代經濟增長需要大量自然資源及勞動力的投入。現在已開發國家（先進國家，或稱工業國家）在十九世紀率先開採自然資源，以促進工業革命；在二十世紀能源消費隨著經濟發展迅速增長。今天世界能源消費的80%靠石化燃料（煤炭、石油和天然氣等）；此外還有地下礦物如稀有金屬，主要用來生產工業原料。此外深耕農業也會加速自然資源的耗竭，造成森林減少及水源污染。當生活水平提高、人口增加及經濟增長快速時，長期且無限制大量開採不可再生的自然資源所造成的問題，引發普世未來各種危機。⁵

最重要的自然資源是石油。人類發現石油好幾千年之久，卻到十九世紀中葉，石油才被大量開採及使用。1910年之前在幾個國家發現大量儲油─包括加拿大、印尼（荷蘭統治）、波斯、祕魯、委內瑞拉及墨西哥。那時殖民帝國開始開採石油，但直到1950年代中葉，煤炭仍是世界上最重要的燃料，之後石油才迅速取代煤炭。今天90%的車輛燃料使用石油，在美國石油也佔能源總消費的40%，但石油只佔發電的2%。石油用途廣泛，除了車輛外，也成為工業化學產品的基礎材料，成為世界上最重要的原料來源。⁶

然而大量開採自然資源也產生許多問題，包括森林減少及土壤沙漠化、物種流失、強迫遷移（人民與動物）、土壤流失、石油耗竭、溫室效應及地球暖化、水質污染及天然災害等。⁷ 因此現代經濟增長伴隨生活水平提高、人口增加及長期無限制的大量開採不可再生的自然資源，將引發普世未來各種危機。

Table 1 Global earthquakes exceeding magnitude 6.99 (1863-2014)

Source 1: http://www.earth.webecs.co.uk

Source 2: http://www.earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2014/

2. Economic abnormalities lead to future instability and crisis

After the unprecedented rapid economic growth in the past two centuries, there are already several worrying trends that will impose restrictions on future world economic growth, including climate change, overload of the earth's ecological area, environmental crisis, resource depletion and world Redistribution of political and economic power. These trends are all interconnected.

Figure 1 The increase and decrease trend of the minimum value of the Antarctic ozone layer (1980-2015)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Min_ozone.jpg

1.Climate change─increasing earthquakes and natural disasters

研究顯示，氣候變遷主要是人為因素，也是造成許多天災的原因。⁸ 聯合國前祕書長安南說：「世界各地歷來都一直面對天災，但今日的天災大都是人類活動所引起，至少是人類使之更加嚴重。」⁹

地震。1990年以來，大地震發生頻率大幅上升，特別是過去廿五年。10（見表1）有些地震與地球暖化有關，例如冰山溶解造成更多地震，特別在格陵蘭。¹¹

天災。當經濟增長而利用自然資源時，二氧化碳排放量的增加引發溫室效應，造成氣候異常，例如美國及世界各地發生強大暴風雨、氣候冷凍及洪水。¹² 南極臭氧層最低量從1970年代長期下滑，平均每十年減少4%。¹³（圖1）其次，各地天災頻率有長期上升的趨勢，也引起產物保險的重大損失。¹⁴（圖2）

Figure 2 World natural disaster trends (1980-2010)

2. Estimation of ecological area─it has exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity

「生態面積」（ecological footprint）是人類對地球生態系統的需求量標準化的衡量方式，足以提供各地人口所需的陸地與海洋面積以生產所消費的資源，及吸收排放的二氧化碳。¹⁵

The Global Footprint Network (GFN) is an international organization that specializes in estimating the ecological area of more than 100 countries in the world. GFN recently reported that the natural services we need - the use of resources and the production of carbon dioxide - are more renewable and renewable than nature can. The speed of absorption is accelerated by 44%. In other words, the resources used by humans every year require nearly one and a half Earths to meet their needs; or, in other words, it takes eighteen months for the Earth to produce the ecological services humans need for one year.

如果人類繼續用目前的速度使用自然資源及產生廢棄物，則到2030年代初期，人類需要兩個地球的資源才能滿足所需。這種生態消耗可能造成生態系統的崩潰。¹⁶

1961年之前，全世界只使用半個地球的生物容量（biocapacty），但今天80%的國家使用超過國境內所能提供的生物容量。美國人平均需要23公頃的生態面積，約達17個美式足球場（按2009年估計）。如果地球上每個人都像美國人一般過活，則全世界需要4.1個地球的面積才夠滿足所需。¹⁷（圖3）

Figure 3 Human ecological area (1961-2001)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_footprint

3. Population growth, frequent famine and poverty

人口大幅增加。世界人口在1990年為十六億，1950年增加到廿五億，2000年到六十一億，2015年初約為七十二億。人口大幅增加的原因是石化燃料的使用、工業化、農業技術及醫療的進步、歐洲人口移民到美洲等。特別是石油的使用是人口迅速增加的主要推動力。¹⁸

根據聯合國的估計，2050年時，世界人口將達九十億。（圖4）其中有三十億新增的中產階級，主要來自新興的大國，如中國與印度。這些人將增加對肉類、消費品及都市基礎建設的需求（最近中國發起籌設亞洲基礎建設投資銀行，聲稱有八兆美元的資金需求就是一例）。因應這些新需求，對能源的需求將更加高升。麥肯錫預期全世界汽車產量在2030年將比目前增加一倍。¹⁹ 如果沒有適量的自然資源來支持現有經濟增長，人口增加在未來幾個十年將緩慢下來，到2050年時可能只達八十億人。²⁰

饑荒。雖然發展中國家近幾十年來生活水平大幅進步，但還是有少數貧困國家經歷饑荒。據聯合國糧食與農業組織估計，2010年全世界饑荒人口共有9.25億，其中98%發生在低收入的發展中國家，或發展中國家的貧困地區，2012年降低到8.7億，縮減數主要來自經濟迅速發展的亞洲及太平洋地區，特別是中國。饑荒人口四分之一來自非洲，不過發達國家也開始看到饑荒人數的增加，從2004至2006的一千三百萬，上升到2010至2012的一千六百萬；而1990至1992饑荒人口高達兩千萬。將來如果糧食越來越短缺，饑荒人口可能會增加，特別是貧困地區。²¹

poverty. The UN Millennium Summit adopted the UN Millennium Declaration in 2000, and 189 countries and 23 international organizations signed a commitment to help poor countries achieve the eight millennium goals in 2015. The main purpose of development goals is to reduce poverty.

第一個目標最重要，消除極度貧窮及饑餓。其中有三種可衡量的指標：在1990至2015這廿五年內，原先生活在1.25美元（以購買力平價計算）以下的人口比率減少一半；達到男女及青年人適當的就業水平；以及遭受饑荒的人口數減半。²² 根據世界銀行的評估，從2000年以來發展中國家已經將極度貧窮人口減半，第一個目標比原先進程提早五年達成。

但這里程碑的提早達陣主要是因為中國經濟較為迅速的發展，在非洲及南亞洲經濟增長較為緩慢的地區還沒有在限期前達成減半目標，仍有十億以上人口處於極度貧窮中，更多人經歷到飢餓及遭受環境惡化及物價飆升的苦果。此外，收入與財富分配高度不均也會造成貧窮人口增加，以及饑荒人口上升的現象（因此發達國家也有饑荒人口）。²³

Figure 4 World population trends and future projections

Source: United Nations

4. Other environmental crises

In addition to the above-mentioned crises, there are several environmental crises that affect the world, some of which have already affected the global ecology and human daily life and health. If left unsolved for a long time, mankind will fall into an unprecedented disaster.

In the final analysis, most of these crises are caused by human factors and are the result of modern economic development in the past two centuries. These include the increase in population and the increasing demand for food; the greenhouse effect and climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions and air pollution; the deforestation for industrialization and economic growth, reducing the area of arable land; the use of pesticides, reducing bees; the comprehensive effect is that tropical Rainforests are disappearing rapidly, and the loss of biodiversity is the extinction of many organisms, lack of water sources, increase in drought areas, desertification of land, reduction in arable land; reduction in food production per person; and increase in waste. If the world does not work together to solve each environmental crisis, it will have great harm to the economy and the maintenance of ecological systems (a brief description of each crisis will be published on the website due to space limitations).

5. Resource depletion

石化燃料的儲存量。世界已經過度使用自然資源，尤其是石化燃料。按照目前使用的速度，石油可以使用四十六年，天然氣五十八年，煤炭一一八年。預計在2025年時，石油及天然氣仍然是主要能源。²⁴

oil. Economies around the world depend on oil and other fossil fuels. Around 2010, half of the world's oil reserves had been used. In 2030, oil production could fall to half of current levels. There is still much debate over when world oil production peaked. Most analysts believe peak oil production will occur between 2010 and 2020.

煤炭和天然氣。煤炭和天然氣也在消失中。在石油用完後，煤炭還可支撐一段時間，但其污染性極高，無法用來作為大部分車輛的燃料。天然氣不易運輸，也不適宜作為大部分設備使用。美國發現大量頁岩氣（shale gas，蘊藏在頁岩層中的天然氣），過去十年已經成為美國日益重要的天然氣能源。2010年提供20%的天然氣供應量，預計2035年提供46%。但專家說，單是應用現行技術使用目前石化燃料就足夠將地球燒滾數次。²⁵

Other minerals. Except for oil, most minerals and non-renewable energy sources in the United States have already exceeded their peak production, including aluminum (peak 1943), copper (1998), iron ore (1951), manganese (1966), phosphosite (1980), Potassium (1967), rare metals (1984), tin (1945), titanium (1964) and zinc (1969). Even if recycled, these resource stocks will continue to decline rapidly.

太陽能及其他可再生替代能源。2012年全球能源消費量約為567EJ（exajoule，能量單位，約278 terawatt-hours TWH）。據估計每年可使用的再生替代能源最具潛力的有太陽能1575EJ、風力640EJ、地熱能5000EJ。全世界沙漠面積約3千6百萬平方公里，可以吸收30萬EJ的太陽能，經過電力轉換後可以得到33,000EJ的能源。不過也有學者認為太陽能及風力都需要極大片土地才能產出所需能量，需要繼續研究。例如產生500EJ的太陽能需要55萬平方公里的土地來架設太陽能板，相當於法國面積，很難控管，可以預見未來投資在替代能源的費用將相對提高許多^。26

Figure 5 The shift in the focus of Christianity (30-2100)

Source: http://www.lausanneworldpulse.com/pdfs/tj_2.pdf

3. The rise and fall of international power

The Shift in Christian Focus. Over the past century, Christians have accounted for only one-third of the world's population. In 1910, the Christian population in Europe and the United States accounted for more than 80% of the world's Christian population. At that time, the center of Christianity was in Europe, that is, the "North" representing advanced countries. However, in recent decades, the center of Christianity has gradually shifted from Europe to Africa. Represents the prosperity of the gospel in the "South" of the world, and its decline in the "North".

In 1910, Europe was still the center of Christianity. At that time, the proportion of Christians in the total population was about 66%. By 2010, it dropped to only 25%; while the proportion of Christians in Africa increased from only 2% to 21.6% during the same period.

從1981年起，「南方」基督徒已經成為多數─基督徒人口在1910年少於10%，今天已上升到50%。撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲，基督徒人口超過70%，從1910年一千兩百萬上升到今天的五億。亞洲基督徒人口也大幅上升─一百年前約兩千五百萬提高到今天約三億六千萬。歐洲基督徒人口則大幅下降。預計在2050年時，除了美國仍然有三億以上的基督徒，其他基督徒人口眾多的國家都是今天的發展中國家，如中國與巴西。²⁷ 從經濟發展歷史的觀點，神特別賜福以基督信仰為主的國家，基督教重心南移也意味著神的賜福可能轉移。（圖5）

The decline of developed countries and the rise of developing countries. Developed countries are all countries deeply influenced by Christianity. However, with the decline of Christianity, their political and economic power has also gradually declined. In international institutions and international occasions, emerging developing countries have gradually become equal to advanced countries and participate in international political and economic decision-making. The aging of the population in European and American countries is getting more and more serious, and social welfare expenditures have also increased accordingly, which has affected the fiscal situation of most countries. National debt has also increased rapidly, and economic growth has been flat. The situation is not optimistic about solving the debt problem.

On the other hand, the rapid economic growth of many emerging developing countries in the past few decades (partly due to the long-term support of poor countries by international institutions and advanced countries in the form of foreign aid and trade, making the latter gradually prosperous) has lifted a large part of the population out of poverty, resulting in the Tens of millions of middle-class people, with strong purchasing power, have become economic giants that can compete with developed countries - such as the emerging seven countries (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, Russia) or the BRICS (Brazil, Russia , India, China and South Africa).

經濟力量也轉化成政治力量，使得國際政經決策權已經由原來的七國集團G-7（美、加、英、法、德、義、日）移轉到二十國集團G-20（1999年成立，即除G-7之外再加上其他十三個國家）。根據預測，2030年新興七國的國民總生產（GNP）將開始超越七國集團。如果用購買力平價的方式（各國當地物價用美國物價來換算成為美元總數），中國的國民總生產在2016年就會超過美國。²⁸

歐美國家的政治及經濟勢力的下滑，及原先發展中國家勢力相對興起，從信仰角度來看，似乎與基督信仰的下滑與上升有關。一向貧窮的發展中國家，經過半世紀，基督教在亞洲、非洲、及拉丁美洲大大復興，也同時見證其經濟及政治勢力的興起。可看見基督信仰興起的地方也是蒙神賜福的地方。我們隱約可見到神的手在掌權，正如詩篇三十三篇12節所說：「以耶和華為神的，那國是有福的！祂所揀選為自己產業的，那民是有福的！」²⁹

4. Conclusion: Reflections of the World Economic Outlook on Millennials

Due to space limitations, this article does not mention the Bible’s predictions of economic prospects, but the Bible mentions wars, famines, and earthquakes in the last days in several passages, and also hints at the occurrence of high inflation (for example, the Gospel of Matthew 24:6-8; Luke 14:38-39; Revelation 6:5-6).

過去兩百年經濟快速發展，的確使先進國家蒙福。但約翰衛斯理早就預言，當基督教散佈時會引起努力工作及節儉的好習慣，因此富裕起來，但富裕就會產生愛世界的心，反而摧毀基督教。避免這種下場的方法就是不但要盡量賺錢、盡量儲蓄，還要盡量給出去，以免遭受地獄的咒詛（講道116篇）³⁰.

Advanced countries that have been deeply baptized by Christianity are like the Israelites. They began to betray the God who made them rich, began to love the world rather than God, and gradually left Christianity, with disastrous consequences. On the other hand, developing countries that were originally poor began to believe in Christ, and were blessed by God and began to become wealthy, and competed with advanced countries on the international stage. Just like Moses declared in Deuteronomy 28, "The Israelites obeyed God's commandments. "If you break a commandment, you will be blessed; if you break it, you will be cursed."

Some futurists have also warned that the world economic system may collapse overnight because it cannot withstand various crises coming at the same time and countries around the world are unwilling to work together for their own interests, just like the doomsday signs mentioned in the Bible. No matter how the world situation changes, the next few decades will happen to be the era when the Millennial generation will take over the leadership. Therefore, the author recommends that Millennials: First of all, strengthen their faith, trust in the salvation of Jesus Christ, commit themselves to Christ, acknowledge the sovereignty of Jesus over our lives and all our money, career and family, and be determined to be loyal, kind and useful. Knowledgeable and wise, good stewards. Secondly, we must be prepared to face many crises in the future and believe that the Lord will give us wisdom to solve them. Even if it is not the case, we must trust God’s guidance and move toward the future with peace and joy in our hearts.

Author's profile Wen Yingqian is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Christian Association in the United States and Taiwan. Editor of the talent unit of this magazine. Honorary professor of the Department of Economics and Finance of Donghua University in Taiwan, director of the American Chinese Outreach Ministry of Crown Financial Ministries, and director of the Christian Messengers Association.